What are the chances for America's Most Wanted to do a feature story and spend a large amt. of time on what the State Dept, and the OCS are NOT doing and on what we all need to do to begin to solve these cases.. I know he's done spots on parentally abducted kids that were endangered.
I think the odds of AMV doing anything are slim to nil - Walsh is only interested in stranger abductions not this - and I think there is a tie-in with the NCMEC who until last year were funded by OCI as part of the sub-contracting arrangement to handle incoming cases.
Carlos hits the nail on the head - we don't know how many cases there are, outgoing and incoming - but there is no reason why we should not know.
The numbers get massaged when OCI/NCMEC is looking for more budget - more cases = more money; but what the true numbers are is anyone's guess but downplayed when it comes to minimizing diplomatic ramifications.
This heinous balancing act is why we have so much fudge with the numbers - the State Department knows we can do simple arithmetic and the numbers simply do not add up.
Carlos is again right - the true numbers are probably much higher than any of those quoted for the reasons he states.
I may be sounding like a stuck record but as a foreigner, I look at the US from the other side of the looking-glass but this may shake you:
The UK reports 50% return rate from the US (Prof. Nigel Low of Cardiff Law School reports 52% generally) - these are HC's only
What is the factor between HC and non-HC's - as many again? More? HC cases are reported variously as only being the tip of the iceberg so a factor of 1:1 is probably conservative:
100 abductions to the US
50 are HC
50 are non-HC (and will be dealt with by US family law - a return is highly unlikely)
50% of that 50 HC are returned = 25
25 out of 100
so, 1 in 4 abductions result in a return.
25% return rate compared to the 90% quoted by OCI and NCMEC - now do you see why other countries and foreign parents view the US with a degree of sceptism and pessimism?
Of course, perform the analysis in reverse and the return rates
TO the US look just as increasingly miserable which brings us neatly back to Carlos' points - no numbers mean we cannot quantify the true scope of the problem
BUT more importantly, no-one can quantify the
performance of OCI et al in getting kids returned, and that, I feel, is at the crux of this fudging along with diplomatic expediency.